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13 August 1999

Town that will never be the same again

Toby Harnden talks to some of the people whose lives were shattered Omagh one year on

FOR the people of Omagh, 3.10pm on Aug 15 last year was the moment their town stood still, frozen in time before its heart was shattered.

It was a sunny Saturday afternoon and shoppers were mingling with those awaiting the carnival floats due to pass along Market Street.

RUC officers had already begun to clear the area around the courthouse following a series of coded warnings but few people believed there was any device. Women, children and a group of Spanish tourists chatted as they were moved further away.

A maroon Vauxhall Cavalier had been parked outside S D Kells children's outfitters 40 minutes earlier. Packed into its boot was a 500lb fertiliser bomb.

Nicola Donnelly, now 26, had been married for just six weeks and was returning to Birthdays store after her lunch break. "At first we were standing in the shade so we crossed the road to where the sun was shining," she said.

"I was talking to the girls from the beauty salon. Deborah Cartwright was telling me about a woman who had been on the sunbed and had stumbled and fallen out into the reception with no top on.

"We were just having a laugh. We wanted to go into the coffee shop and sit down but none of us had any money with us."

Inside the coffee shop, Katrine Gault was coping with being short-staffed on a busy afternoon. The shop had not been evacuated because it was so far from the courthouse.

"I had just turned to serve a customer," she said. "Two seconds before, I had been looking out of the window and had seen Rosemary, the traffic warden, directing people away."

When the bomb exploded, it shattered the six first-floor windows of the coffee shop and sent tens of thousands of slivers of glass into the sitting area.

"It was like a shower hitting my back and legs and arms," said Mrs Gault. "Everything was in slow motion. I just shut down for a moment and then I could hear the girl beside me, one of my staff, screaming uncontrollably."

A partition wall and the ceiling had collapsed, bringing down a steel girder. The force of the blast had also blown a door off its hinges and pushed over a huge fridge. "The place had been packed but suddenly there was no one there.

"The girl could not stop screaming but I could not speak. I was concentrating on my arms and legs. The skin had been rolled right down and I could feel the blood draining out of the bottom of my legs.

"There was a sense of squelching on the backs of my legs and my feet, they were so badly cut but there was no pain at all.

"I saw two dead bodies. One was when I looked out of the window and the second was when I came downstairs and on to the road."

Grace Lyttle, now 15, had been out buying nail varnish and make-up with her friends. "As we were standing around, Route 66 was still playing music and the last song I heard was Viva Forever by the Spice Girls," she said.

"There was this almighty bang and it seeemed like the whole earth stood still. Then everybody was roaring and screaming. People were falling and lying on the ground in awful states."

A water main had burst, washing bloodied limbs and parts of bodies along the gutter.

"I saw people with no arms and no legs," said Grace. "There was a man standing up the street. He'd lost his wife and he was on a mobile phone. I had never seen a man cry before. He kept saying, `I can't find them, I can't find them. They're dead. What am I going to do?'

"There was a man sprawled over one of the benches and there were people putting a navy blazer over his face. He'd just died as I was looking at him."

The first indication Nicola Donnelly had had that something was seriously wrong was when a woman walking towards her called out: "This is no hoax, it's for real."

She recalled: "As she spoke, the bomb went off. I was blown through the window and landed in the window of the shoe shop. I didn't hear the bang. It was just the feeling of it, the heat. I couldn't breathe because of the dust and rubble and I thought I was trapped."

Her left leg and feet had been peppered with glass and pieces of debris. A lump of metal had punctured her stomach, her pelvis was broken and her wrist cut. She needed 80 stitches.

"Two boys picked me up but I couldn't walk," she said. "I thought my shoes were on fire. They sat me down and there was a girl next to me who had her foot missing. She was crying for her mother and saying, `My foot's gone'."

Deborah Cartwright was dead; Rosemary McCombe, the traffic warden, was very seriously injured; Mrs Gault suffered terrible cuts to the back of her body and later had to have skin grafts; Grace Lyttle escaped with a cut knee and a badly bruised shoulder.

Within minutes, vehicles were being commandeered to ferry the injured to the Tyrone County Hospital nearby. Mrs Gault was put into a minibus.

"It's so stupid, but I was scared I was going to fall out of the back," she said.

Michael Gallagher had been working in his garage two miles away when he heard the explosion. He knew that his son, Adrian, had gone into town to buy some boots and jeans.

"When it came up on teletext that people were dead and injured, I went straight to the hospital," he said. "What I saw reminded me of a battle scene except there were no soldiers. It was women and children.

"I went through every treatment room and I remember coming out and thinking, `Thank God Adrian's not there'." But when he found Adrian's car still parked in the town, he knew something was terribly wrong.

"His friend Michael was badly injured and he said the last thing he remembered was Adrian standing beside him," Mr Gallagher said.

He was directed to the leisure centre where casualty lists were being compiled. "The next 14 hours were the worst of my life," he said. "I couldn't eat or drink and my head was just getting sorer and sorer. As the night wore on this awful inevitability was sinking in."

His son's body was eventually identified at 5am. "Once it came to that point, I could not wait to get back to the house," he said. "I wanted to run because I knew the pain my wife and two girls were going through not knowing if they should still have hope or if they should be grieving.

"When I went into the hall, they came out to me. We came together and I just held them and we started crying. The sun was just rising and it was a beautiful Sunday morning and I just could not understand why Adrian wouldn't see it."

A year later, the pain has only just begun to subside. Where Mrs Gault's shop stood, there is now a patch of waste ground that is being turned into a garden of remembrance. She cannot bring herself to walk along Market Street.

"I have stopped thinking about it every single moment of every single day as I once did," she said. "Only the people who were there in the actual place on the actual day can understand.

"The shop owners were a community. It doesn't matter what side of the religious divide you are, a coffee shop is a hub. I miss it dreadfully."

Sunday's anniversary commemoration, when the people will come together to remember the 31 dead, including two unborn twins, and the suffering of the 350 injured, will be too painful for some to attend. For others, it will be another necessary hurdle to overcome on the road to recovery

Part of the pain is the recognition that Omagh will never be the same again.

"Too many children lost parents or were injured," said Nicola Donnelly. "There's an atmosphere. It's improved from the first few months but it's still not the same. Maybe in another two or three generations, but not in my lifetime."

20 August 1999

Are they ready to play the card of further terror?

Toby Harnden, Northern Ireland correspondent, argues that the Government's blunders in the province bode ill for the autumn

PICTURE the scene inside a dingy interview room in a Royal Ulster Constabulary station in 1980. In custody is the local leader of the Provisional IRA, who is taking exception to being arrested for failing to stop at a border checkpoint. Rising to his feet, the IRA man jabs his finger towards a young RUC officer and then to the superintendent's office above. "See you," he says. "You'll not be acting like this when I'm up there and you're still down here."

The IRA man was Martin McGuinness. At the time, the officer dismissed the republican's words as empty bravado. Now he is not so sure. If the Government has its way, Mr McGuinness will soon be a minister in a devolved Northern Ireland administration. He may never occupy the superintendent's office, but he is on course to become the boss of whoever does.

The aim of next month's "review" of the Belfast Agreement, to be conducted by George Mitchell, a former US senator, is to broker a deal whereby Unionists accept cabinet seats alongside Sinn Fein. It will coincide with publication of Chris Patten's report on the future of policing, judged so sensitive that it is being printed in Holland.

The man who brought the Union flag down on Hong Kong is likely to call for the RUC to be renamed the Northern Ireland Police Service, and for its bottle-green uniform to be replaced by one in navy blue.

A recruiting drive to attract more Roman Catholics will be instituted, probably involving an expansion of the force, pending the retirement of many of the older Protestant officers.

This would allow large numbers of troops to be withdrawn, thereby addressing the republican demand for "demilitarisation". The Patten report has been driven by political rather than policing considerations, and many police officers fear that their future is being treated by the Government as a card to be played to appease republicans.

Two assumptions lie at the heart both of government policy in Ulster and of the Patten report.

First, that Sinn Fein is now committed to constitutional politics. Second, that, by giving in to the demands of Sinn Fein, the IRA will be encouraged to think that politics is preferable to violence and that armed republicanism will wither away.

These two assumptions have become so entrenched in the thinking of the Blair administration that casting doubt on them is an act of heresy. They are, moreover, the reason why Sinn Fein will not be excluded from political talks, despite IRA murders and gun-running plots.

But the evidence on which they are based is dubious at best. First, let us examine the proposition that Mr McGuinness and his colleagues have become constitutional democrats.

After some internal debate, they took the tactical decision to back the Belfast Agreement because it could advance the cause of a united Ireland. This entailed a commitment to "exclusively peaceful and democratic means". But the events of recent weeks have made clear that this commitment is a nonsense.

As Mr McGuinness helpfully explained this week, the IRA's ceasefire was a "cessation of military operations", involving the suspension of violence against the RUC, Army and loyalists, but not against its own community. Thus, alleged drugs dealers and informers could be murdered with impunity and guns procured for future activities.

The ceasefire was therefore not a renunciation of violence, but simply a temporary decision to suspend certain types of violence in certain circumstances. This cannot be described as a commitment to peaceful means. Of course, Sinn Fein has spent more than a decade arguing that it is not the IRA. Only the incurably naive accept this as true.

Mr McGuinness, Gerry Adams, Pat Doherty and Martin Ferris all sit on the IRA's ruling Army Council. Each therefore bears responsibility for the decision to blow up South Quay in February 1996, bringing the IRA ceasefire to an end and snuffing out the lives of two newsagents.

At the time, the cry was that Messrs Adams and McGuinness had either lost control of the republican movement or had acted in bad faith. More than three years later, they still remain at the head of that movement and show no signs of being ousted. Only one conclusion can be drawn.

The second assumption is equally questionable. Sinn Fein's demands for prisoner releases, inclusion into the Key Persons' Protection Scheme, RUC reform and a human rights commission have all been met, but the response has been a refusal to decommission weapons in any circumstances.

Violence has continued because it is a necessary part of the dual strategy of the "tactical use of the armed struggle" (TUAS). Rather than demonstrating the benefits of a total commitment to politics, the concessions have shown just how much violence can achieve.

The logical conclusion of TUAS - outlined in a document drawn up by republicans before the 1994 ceasefire - is Sinn Fein being in government while the IRA continues its violence. As a fallback position, republicans have calculated that the failure to achieve devolution in Northern Ireland will be blamed on Unionist intransigence.

When Mr Blair returns from Tuscany, he will find that Northern Ireland is fast becoming the issue that could take the sheen off New Labour's first term. It is already clear that the Belfast Agreement was not really an agreement at all. The fundamental issues were fudged and put off, and its language was so ambiguous that Unionists and republicans were able to sell it to their supporters on the basis of completely opposite interpretations.

The Government's room for manoeuvre is limited. Having tacitly accepted the IRA's narrow definition of a ceasefire for so long and consistently taken a Nelsonian approach to violence on both sides, it would be illogical for it to throw Sinn Fein out of talks now. More fundamentally, "inclusivity" - the principle that the paramilitary-linked parties have to be part of any Ulster deal - has become an article of faith. Excluding Sinn Fein would be an admission of failure.

Missed deadlines and failed negotiations have poisoned relationships in Northern Ireland so much that agreement on forming a devolved government seems as remote as ever.

When the Patten commission card is played, Mr Blair will hope that it will persuade republicans to countenance a handover of weapons and that a demoralised Ulster Unionist Party can be cajoled into taking a risk on sharing power with Sinn Fein, for fear of something worse later.

But the card of further IRA violence remains the ace in the pack. The success of Mr Blair's Ulster project now depends on Mr McGuinness throwing it away, and deciding that the time has come for republicans to make the Northern Ireland state work.

16 July 1999

Drowned at birth in sea of acrimony and blame

BENEATH the gilded Corinthian columns and walnut panelling of the old Stormont parliament, a new Northern Ireland government was established yesterday.

But within three minutes of its tenth member being appointed, the body was dissolved: drowned at birth in a sea of acrimony and recrimination.

The undertaker was Lord Alderdice, the assembly's speaker, who used his best funereal tones to direct proceedings that Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley, whose views have seldom been at one, both described as a farce.

It was only as the assembly members were filing into the chamber that news came through from the Ulster Unionist Party's headquarters that David Trimble, First Minister designate, and his colleagues would be boycotting the meeting.

Rows of empty blue leather seats faced John Hume, the SDLP leader, and Seamus Mallon, Deputy First Minister designate, as Mr Paisley and his colleagues attempted to mount a filibuster to take matters into the afternoon by calling for a debate on excluding Sinn Fein from government.

Having established that Mr Paisley had failed to secure the necessary 30 signatures for his motion, Lord Alderdice suspended the sitting for 15 minutes to take instructions from Mo Mowlam, the Northern Ireland Secretary.

Employing all the dignity he could muster in what was a patently ridiculous situation, Lord Alderdice then called on the absent Mr Trimble to appoint his first choice as minister, giving him five minutes to make up his mind. There was laughter as he ordered: "Clerk. The clock."

Five minutes later, with Mr Trimble still absent, Mr Hume was chosen to select a minister. There was applause from the nationalist benches as Mark Durkan was named as minister of finance and personnel.

After another 15-minute adjournment, this time at the behest of Mr Paisley, the firebrand preacher rose. "In order to oust Sinn Fein from office in keeping with the wishes of the majority of the Unionist people, I refuse to nominate," he thundered.

A little over an hour after the sitting commenced, Mr Adams named Bairbre de Brun as minister for enterprise and trade, the first Sinn Fein representative to take up an executive post in Northern Ireland's history.

"Designate", "Temporarily" shouted the DUP in the manner of schoolboys disrupting an annual prizegiving ceremony, as Lord Alderdice confirmed her position.

After the SDLP's Sean Farren had been appointed minister for regional development, it was the turn of Sinn Fein's Martin McGuinness. The Londonderry republican was appointed minister for agriculture and rural development.

Sean Neeson, leader of the moderate Alliance party, refused to nominate a minister because of the "unforgivable absence of the Ulster Unionists" from the chamber. "Myself and my party are not prepared to be patsies," he said.

"Next patsy please," shouted the DUP's Gregory Campbell as Pat Doherty, Sinn Fein's Scottish-born vice-president, accepted the post of minister of education.

And so it continued, with the remaining ministers being solemnly appointed according to a formula drawn up in the 18th century by the Belgian political scientist Vincent d'Hondt.

Bob McCartney, leader of the UK Unionist Party, turned down a post. "Under no circumstances as a democrat would I consider nominating myself or anyone else in my party to sit in an executive with two members of the IRA Army Council, Martin McGuinness and Pat Doherty," he said.

Mr McGuinness, who sat smirking on the other side of the chamber, called out to Mr McCartney: "Minister for Silly Walks."

As the SDLP's Alban Maginness became the 10th and final member of the executive, there were shouts of "Cheerio" and "P45" from the DUP. Lord Alderdice confirmed that the absence of Unionists on the executive meant that the body had to fall.

Mr Mallon delivered a scathing attack on Unionists who had tried "to bleed this process dry", accusing them of "dishonouring" the Good Friday Agreement and "insulting its principles". As he ended by announcing his resignation, it was clear that the agreement was in freefall.

Mr Adams was interrupted by Mr Paisley, who then refused to speak when Mr Adams gave way to him. "I will not speak on the grace and favour of a member of the Army Council of the IRA," said Mr Paisley, to giggles from nationalists.

As Mr Adams accused DUP members of being the "founders of Ulster Resistance", Mr Paisley's men began to chant the names of IRA atrocities in an attempt to drown out the Sinn Fein president.

"Tullyvallen", "Teebane", "Ballykelly", "La Mon", "Bloody Friday", they intoned.

The agreement, said Mr Paisley triumphantly, should be "buried in a grave never to be resurrected".

Mr Adams, who had looked relaxed and in good humour throughout, did not beg to differ and the assembly was adjourned with every likelihood that it would never meet again.

2 July 1999

Trimble refuses to roll over this time

The `Trust me, I'm Tony', let alone `Trust Me, I'm Gerry', routine would make no difference

DAVID Trimble has a reputation within Unionism for wobbling under pressure. Tetchy, quick to take offence and apt to isolate himself, during negotiations on the Good Friday Agreement he was given the nickname of Purple Turtle.

"He turned a deep crimson and rolled over and surrendered," said one critic.

And so, as the witching hour approached and with it Tony Blair's "absolute deadline", it was Mr Trimble's turn to be strapped into the dentist's chair.

Having extracted what they could from Sinn Fein on Wednesday night, the British and Irish governments both knew that the only way a deal could be secured was for Mr Trimble to be pushed into giving way on the arms decommissioning issue.

Unionist opponents of the Belfast Agreement - a sizeable proportion of whom are in Mr Trimble's own party - saw a re-run of the wee small hours of Good Friday last year begin to take shape.

Then, with the media already briefed by Alastair Campbell, the Prime Minister's official spokesman, that a deal had been done, President Clinton and Mr Blair cajoled Mr Trimble into taking a risk on a document that contained less than copper-bottomed guarantees on arms decommissioning.

It might not have been a subtle strategy but the signs were that the two governments believed it would succeed a second time.

Mr Trimble was presented with the option of being held up to the world as a great peacemaker or as a political pygmy who put narrow sectarian interest before the hopes of the children.

Past performance is no more than a guide to future action and Mr Trimble was not about to let history repeat itself. It was, moreover, because of, rather than despite, what he did last year that he appeared to be holding firm to his policy of "no guns, no government".

Sinn Fein had tabled a proposal that involved the party being granted seats in government this week in return for some sort of commitment that the IRA would begin to decommission its arsenal between September and December.

At around 9pm, a senior British official emerged to brief selected journalists that "an historic deal is within our grasp", adding that Mr Blair and Mr Ahern had accepted Sinn Fein's proposal. There was "some disbelief" that Mr Trimble appeared to be unimpressed.

Within an hour, the media rumour mill had transformed the Sinn Fein proposal into an unequivocal offer, underwritten by the IRA and the two governments, that arms would be handed over.

If true, it would have been an extraordinary break with republican tradition by the Provisionals. Inside Castle Buildings, where the talks were taking place, the picture looked rather different.

The Ulster Unionists had held four meetings with Sinn Fein, including one in which their six-man negotiating team faced Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness.

But there was no concrete plan or decommissioning timetable outlined to them and nothing on paper. Crucially, there was no explanation of the nature of the IRA commitment to decommission.

Having heard Gerry Kelly, the Sinn Fein negotiator and former IRA bomber, describe the Good Friday Agreement as "a legal contract between enemies", the 28 members of the Ulster Unionist Party assembly teams were in no mood to take anything on trust. Again, the memory of Good Friday haunted them.

Then, Mr Blair offered Mr Trimble a "comfort blanket" in the form of a letter which explained that he believed arms decommissioning should take place straight away.

During the subsequent referendum campaign, Mr Blair made five pledges to the Ulster people.

As every good Unionist can recite, they included: "Those who use or threaten violence excluded from the Government of Northern Ireland"; and "Prisoners kept in unless violence is abandoned for good".

Throughout the day, Mr Campbell had briefed journalists that the main obstacle to a deal was trust in the "quality of the commitments" by each side. The problem for the Unionists was that they felt past commitments by Mr Blair had proved worthless.

Despite all this, the feeling among senior Ulster Unionist Party assembly members was that Mr Trimble instinctively wanted to cut a deal.

Having signed the Good Friday Agreement, been awarded the Nobel Peace Prize and abandoned a number of Unionist shibboleths, he felt that his political future lay in making the agreement work. Pulling Mr Trimble in the other direction was the arithmetic of the assembly.

He needed at least 23 in his assembly team to command the 40 per cent of Unionists he needed to conduct day-to-day business.

If he cut a deal and lost more than five people, he would be deposed within a fortnight and the deal would fold anyway.

But the pressure was on and the assembly team was jittery. Billy Armstrong, Pauline Armitage, Roy Beggs Jr, Fred Cobain and Robert Coulter were all said to be prepared to reject any deal involving Sinn Fein in government before IRA arms were forthcoming.

"And that's just up to the letter C," joked one Ulster Unionist Party dissident.

Even loyal Trimblites felt starved of information. The Ulster Unionist leader was holding meetings without other party colleagues and was snapping at some of his advisers.

Michael McGimpsey, one of his most moderate negotiators, apparently recommended: "We should get out now."

Sensing neither he nor the Good Friday Agreement could survive if he cut the deal, Mr Trimble met Mr Blair and Mr Ahern and called for a time-out.

He needed to see the colour of Sinn Fein's money, he said, before anything could be secured.

Bob McCartney, the UK Unionist leader, had called David Trimble "the chief lemming" and he was not going to take a leap of faith when he was already standing, as Mr Blair had helpfully pointed out earlier in the week, on the edge of the abyss.

Mr Blair offered to address the Ulster Unionist assembly team himself. This was rejected, as had been a similar proposal from Mr Adams. The "Trust me, I'm Tony", let alone "Trust Me, I'm Gerry", routine would make no difference.

In a telephone call from Air Force One, President Clinton also reminded Mr Trimble, who is said to be susceptible to flattery, of his place in the broad sweep of history.

But Unionists, who, like Gradgrind, prefer to deal in hard facts, were beginning to believe that their leader had finally drawn a line in the sand.

11 June 1999

I will play no part in political fudge over Ulster arms, general pledges. By Toby Harnden in Belfast

INTERVIEW

GEN John de Chastelain, the man with the task of overseeing total paramilitary disarmament in Northern Ireland by May next year, said yesterday that he would not be part of any "political fudge" on the decommissioning issue.

As the British and Irish governments prepare for a final push to break the political impasse in Ulster and achieve devolution by Tony's Blair's "absolute" deadline of June 30, some politicians are beginning to look towards the former Chief of the Canadian Defence Staff for a solution.

The nationalist Social Democratic and Labour Party and some influential British and Irish officials believe that a "form of words" stating that Sinn Fein has worked in good faith to achieve decommissioning could be enough to allow republicans into government.

This, it is argued, would be an honourable compromise between the IRA's insistence that not a bullet should be surrendered and the Unionist ultimatum of "no guns, no government" delivered by David Trimble to Gerry Adams.

But Gen de Chastelain, who was first requested by the two governments to look at the decommissioning issue back in November 1995, told The Daily Telegraph that such a move would be outside his remit and would undermine his independence.

"Our role is technical rather than political," he said. "There are requirements in the Good Friday Agreement for all the parties to use their best efforts to assist us and it's probably legitimate for us to report on whether we believe that to be the case.

"But if we have anything going for us it's that both sides are prepared to talk to us because they think we're objective and we need to maintain that confidence . . . fundamentally it's up to those who have the arms to decide that the time has come to give them up."

So far, the destruction of nine guns, 350 bullets, two blast bombs, and a quantity of explosive handed over by the Loyalist Volunteer Force in December is all Gen de Chastelain and his colleagues on the International Commission on Decommissioning have to show for more than 18 months' labour. At least one of those LVF weapons dated back to before the days of Sir Edward Carson and the guns landed at Larne in 1914.

"There were some that were very old, some that were very modern and some that were very nice but they're all confetti now," the general said.

He is prepared to employ experts to measure the dimensions of craters to establish that explosives have been detonated and has even contemplated arms being disposed of abroad by a neutral country but any act of decommissioning has to be verified.

"We have received a number of suggestions about monuments and using cut-up arms for artistic purposes but at the moment our mandate is very specific: complete destruction," Gen de Chastelain said.

As a British citizen who was educated at a prep school and Fettes before his parents emigrated to Canada when he was 18, republicans initially objected to the general's appointment by the two governments.

His American mother worked for MI6 during the Second World War while his father was a member of the Special Operations Executive captured in Romania in 1943 after being parachuted in on the orders of Churchill.

But since his arrival in Belfast the general has become one of those rare figures who has been able to win the confidence of both sides in Northern Ireland while remaining true to his own convictions.

His point of contact with Sinn Fein - the IRA has not appointed anyone to liaise with the commission - is Martin McGuinness, believed by the security services to be a member of the IRA's seven-man army council. The general, who was Canada's ambassador to Washington after retiring from the army, is diplomatic about the affiliations of those he has dealings with. "If I have been meeting paramilitaries then I don't know that I have been," he said.

He soon found that he had a shared hobby with Mr McGuinness. "He's a fly fisherman, I'm a fly fisherman. I had some lough flies which I gave to him to see if they worked over here."

At the other end of the political spectrum, he has a warm relationship with Bob McCartney, the United Kingdom Unionist MP who opposes the agreement and any notion of terrorists entering government.

As the man who, out of all those involved in the Northern Ireland political process, is perhaps least likely to become a terrorist target, Gen de Chastelain is a familiar figure on the streets of Belfast on either side of the "peace line".

People were friendly and interested in his work and occasionally he would be told that decommissioning was not important and that guns should be left to rust.

"If I think they're serious," said the general, "I give them an argument about how guns don't rust in the ground if they're looked after properly and that the pike in the thatch is not quite the same as the surface-to-air missile in the thatch."

He said that everything was now ready for the mainstream terrorist groups to make their move. "There have been concerns we will be part of a fudge but first of all I don't think the governments would ask us to be and second we wouldn't do it," he said. Only the paramilitaries could solve the arms conundrum.

"The rabbit out of the hat is to do what the Good Friday Agreement suggested and do all the things that have to be done to implement it by May 2000," he said. "And that does include decommissioning."

1 June 1999

Son crossed the IRA and never came home

The case of Brian McKinney

AS Irish police continued yesterday to drain bogland at Colgagh close to the Republic's border with South Armagh where the body of Brian McKinney is said to be, his mother spoke of her hopes that she could soon bury her son with dignity.

Brian McKinney, 22, and John McClory, 18, are thought to have been victims of "bogjobs", when the IRA murdered someone and then dumped the body where they might not be discovered for a century.

The bodies of some of those killed in the Irish civil war of the 1920s are thought to be still lying in bogs close to the border. One body was found in a bog just a few miles from Colgagh in 1924.

It was identified as that of William Frazer, a Protestant publican murdered in South Armagh two years earlier. Margaret McKinney, who has already bought a plot in Belfast's Milltown Cemetery for her son's burial, said that although the waiting had been agony she believed her long ordeal would soon come to an end.

Mr McKinney became one of "the Disappeared" when he was accused of a petty crime. He was abducted and put before a kangaroo court which found him guilty of robbing a bar protected by the IRA. He was shot and buried in an unmarked grave.

Milltown Cemetery , where Bobby Sands, the IRA hunger striker, is buried alongside his comrades, has been the scene of republican funerals for which thousands turned out.

Along the Falls Road, which runs past the cemetery, Sands and other IRA "martyrs" are commemorated on murals and rolls of honour. But there will be no portraits of Mr McKinney and his funeral is expected to be a small, family affair.

"It will mean so much to me," said Mrs McKinney. "Then perhaps I'll be able to put the story together of what happened to him and what his last moments were. That really haunts me. "I can still see his face as he went out of the house on May 25, 1978. He said: `I'm away, Mum'.

"That was the last time I saw him. That evening he didn't come home for dinner and I knew something was wrong because there was no way our Brian would stay away from home even for a night."

Shortly before he was abducted, Mr McKinney had been caught up with his friend, John McClory, and five others in a plan to rob the bar. "Brian was very childish," said Mrs McKinney. "He was diagnosed when he was 14 as having the mind of a six-year-old.

"He was popular and jolly but very easily led. It certainly wasn't very bright of them to rob that bar. Brian did not need to do it because he was never deprived. Both his parents were working and he could have had anything within reason."

For a week afterwards, a man Mrs McKinney described as an IRA godfather visited the house to tell her that her son was being questioned by the IRA and was safe. Then one night he informed her that the IRA no longer knew where he was. "I knew then that he was dead," she said.

John McClory was also shot dead. The other five involved in the robbery fled across the border to the Irish Republic. Some have never returned to Belfast and are among the thousands of exiles too afraid to return to Northern Ireland.

Mrs McKinney said: "The other night I heard Engelbert Humperdinck on the radio singing Please Release Me. It just flashed me back because that's the song Brian sung in the wee school show he was in. There's many a time I see the like of Boyzone on the television and I always say: `Our Brian would have loved them'.

"I'll choose some of the songs I think he would have liked to be played at his funeral service." With the passage of years, she said, the bitterness she once felt had slipped away.

"The hatred in me at one time was just eating me up. Thank God I don't feel that any more. Now I don't feel anything towards the people who killed Brian. There is a God and they'll have to face Him one day.

"I feel sure now that I will be able to bring Brian home very soon and his funeral will be a very special occasion for us. Then I'll be able to walk down to his grave in the morning and just talk to him. I'll know that he's at rest."

16 March 1999

Death of Rosemary Nelson highlights the failure of peace negotiations to calm traditional enmities in a turbulent area of Ulster

The blazing hatred of `murder triangle' ANALYSIS

AS Rosemary Nelson struggled vainly for her life yesterday, groups of balaclava-clad youths spilled out from the republican Kilwilkie estate 300 yards away and hurled petrol bombs at an Army Land Rover on its way to the scene.

This was Lurgan, in the heart of Mid-Ulster's "murder triangle", a mixed-religion area blighted by festering sectarian hatred. As the rest of Northern Ireland has grappled with the new political landscape after Good Friday, it has appeared increasingly to be the land that time forgot.

It was in Lurgan that Constables John Graham and David Johnston were shot in the head and killed in June 1997 as they patrolled the town centre. Portadown, scene of the annual Drumcree Orange parade, is just three miles away.

Each week, hardline loyalists bitterly opposed to the Good Friday Agreement gather at Drumcree to hurl abuse and missiles at the Royal Ulster Constabulary and hem in nationalists living in the beleaguered estates flanking the Garvaghy Road.

Constable Frankie O'Reilly, who died in October, had been hit by a blast bomb thrown by a loyalist at Drumcree. Even before Mrs Nelson's murder yesterday, the two communities in Lurgan and Portadown were already steeling themselves for a long, hot summer in the run-up to the Drumcree march.

Mid-Ulster was the stamping ground of Billy Wright, the murdered Loyalist Volunteer Force leader known as King Rat. His counterpart in the IRA is a resident of the Kilwilkie estate who, like Wright, specialises in close-quarter assassination.

It is against this backdrop that Mrs Nelson's death must be viewed. As solicitor for the Garvaghy Road Residents' Coalition and a number of high-profile republicans accused of IRA offences, she was a hate figure among loyalists who have elevated sectarian hatred to an art form.

Recent loyalist violence has been carried out by tiny splinter groups calling themselves the Orange Volunteer Force and Red Hand Defenders - the latter claiming reponsibility for the attack. However, the sophisticated nature of yesterday's car bomb points to some level of involvement by mainstream loyalist paramilitaries.

The immediate reaction of RUC officers on the ground in Lurgan is that the device bore the imprimatur of the Ulster Volunteer Force, whose increasing expertise in using car bombs was one of the factors that led to the IRA ceasefire of 1994.

But both the UVF and the Ulster Defence Association - the main loyalist terrorist group - have kept within their own definitions of a ceasefire since the Good Friday Agreement was signed and their prisoners are benefiting from the early-release scheme.

The Orange Volunteers and Red Hand Defenders are believed by the security forces to be a loose collection of loyalists operating outside the structures of the UDA and UVF.

The majority of members are thought to be former LVF members who left the UVF in 1996 along with Wright. If either of these new groups is behind Mrs Nelson's murder then the fact that such devices are in the hands of virulently anti-agreement groups poses a real threat to the new status quo.

Equally, the repercussions of the UDA, UVF or LVF being involved could be enormous. The motivation of those who planted the bomb underneath Mrs Nelson's BMW was probably a combination of murderous hatred for a " Provo solicitor" and a desire to scupper the Good Friday Agreement by provoking IRA retaliation.

In fact, the killers have handed the republican movement a macabre propaganda gift on which Sinn Fein representatives, despite their genuine sadness at Mrs Nelson's death, were not slow to capitalise yesterday.

Even before Mrs Nelson had been pronounced dead, John O'Dowd, a Lurgan Sinn Fein councillor, was standing at the police tape a few yards from her car alleging "RUC collusion at the highest level" and stating that an Army helicopter had looked on as the bombers had planted their device.

As lines of RUC men carried out a search of the area around the BMW and Mrs Nelson's home, the expressions on their faces showed that they knew how the murder they were beginning to investigate would be used to discredit and vilify them.

The immediate effect of the murder is likely to be a strengthening of resolve among moderate politicians on both sides to avoid a return to widespread terrorist violence.

At the same time, however, the already slim chance of the Provisionals seriously contemplating giving up any weapons will probably dwindle to nothing as the focus shifts away from IRA stockpiles.

"Why should we give up our guns when we are under threat from loyalist death squads?" republicans will argue. After Mrs Nelson's murder, such sentiments are likely to be supported by influential voices in Washington and Dublin.

Even without republican reprisals, the killing will overshadow Wednesday's St Patrick's Day celebrations in America, for which senior Northern Ireland politicians have decamped.

Any further violence, either by loyalists or the republican dissidents behind last August's Omagh bomb, will create an atmosphere of crisis in which it is difficult to imagine the weapons issue being resolved in the 17 days before the expiry of the Good Friday deadline set by the Government.

By the time darkness had begun to fall on Lurgan last night, Northern Ireland's future appeared once again to be at the mercy of the violence on its streets.

24 March 1999

File on paramilitary prisoners freed early

REPUBLICANS (all IRA except where indicated)

* Bannon, Craig. Fourteen years for possession of explosives and conspiracy to murder. Served six years.

* Bateson, Peter. Twenty-five years for conspiracy to murder members of the security forces. Convicted January 1991.

* Bradley, Gerard. Ten years for the hijacking of a van and the false imprisonment of a family during the attempted murder of an RUC detective.

* Brady, John. Life for murder of Reserve Constable John Black in 1989.

* Breslin, Michael. Twenty-five years for attempted murder. Convicted December 1989.

* Brogan, Mark. Fourteen years for possession of weapons.

* Brown, Rosena. Twenty years for conspiracy to murder after being caught transporting a bomb. An actress, she was described in court as an IRA "intelligence officer" who used the lure of sex to gather information.

* Browne, Donal. Life for murder of James McElhinney, former UDR soldier, in 1985.

* Bullock, Martin. Life for murder of John Hardy, part-time UDR soldier, in 1989.

* Campbell, Bernard. Life for murder of four soldiers by landmine in Ballygawley, Co Tyrone in 1983.

* Campbell, Brendan. Twenty years for possession of two drogue bombs.

* Campbell, Sean. Fourteen years.

* Carroll, Ailish. Fifteen years for possession of two rifles after being caught when his car was stopped at an RUC roadblock. Convicted 1992.

* Carroll, Gregory. Twenty-two years for possession of two rifles after being caught when his car was stopped at an RUC roadblock. Convicted 1992.

* Cleary, Mark. Life for the sectarian murder of William Frazer, a Protestant, who died after being beaten up while walking home.

* Clinton, Terry. Fourteen years for attempted murder of RUC officers.

* Conlon, Steven. Twenty years for manslaughter of Bernard Lavecy and his 13-year- old granddaughter.

* Connolly, Sean. Twenty years for possession of explosives with intent to endanger life.

* Corrigan, Paddy. Ten years.

* Corry, Sean. Thirteen years. Released temporarily last year by the Government to attend Sinn Fein conference discussing the Good Friday Agreement.

* Cosgrove, Kevin. Twenty-one years for possession of explosives. Convicted June 1991.

* Coyle, Colm. Fourteen years for conspiracy to murder.

* Craven, Christopher. Life for the sectarian murder of William Frazer, a Protestant, who died after being beaten up while walking home.

* Dillon, Martin. Fourteen years for conspiracy to murder.

* Doherty, Joseph. Life for the murder of Capt Herbert Westmacott, an SAS officer. Escaped from the Maze in 1983 and extradited from the USA in 1992.

* Doherty, Seamus. Twenty years.

* Donaghy, Paddy. Ten years for the hijacking of a van and the false imprisonment of a family during the attempted murder of an RUC detective in Belfast by an IRA gang.

* Donegan, Kevin. Eight years for his part in the murder of Frank Kerr, a Post Office worker shot dead in Newry, Co Armagh.

* Donnelly, Jim. Twenty-two years for attempted murder. Convicted 1991. * Duffin, James. Life for the murder of Albert Cooper, an off- duty Ulster Defence Regiment soldier in November 1990.

* Duffy, Sean. Seventeen years.

* Fay, Sean. Sixteen years for conspiracy to murder.

* Ferrity, Geraldine. Life for the murder of Albert Cooper. A nurse, she drove her car into Cooper's garage. Bomb exploded when he turned on ignition.

* Fitzsimmons, Bobby. Twenty years for possession of explosives.

* Fitzsimmons, Harry. Sixteen years for possession of bomb and weapons.

* Fox, Bernard. Twenty-two years for conspiracy to cause explosions.

* Fox, Cathal. Sixteen years for attempted murder of Army foot patrol.

* Gallen, Liam. Fourteen years for conspiracy to murder members of security forces.

* Gilmartin, Eugene. Life for the murder of William McConnell, assistant governor at the Maze, who was shot dead as he left for work in March 1984.

* Gervin, Martin . Life for the murder of Staff Sergeant Kevin Froggett, of the Royal Corps of Signals who was shot dead as he repaired a radio mast at Coalisland RUC station in Co Tyrone in September 1989.

* Hamill, Patrick. Sixteen years for conspiracy to murder and possession of two loaded assault rifles in December 1993. Had been planning to murder an RUC officer but was captured at a checkpoint in Portadown, Co Armagh.

* Hannigan, Mark. Eighteen years for attempted murder and rifle possession.

* Harkin, Richard. Twenty years for attempted murder. Convicted August 1993.

* Hawkins, Gavin. Ten years for aiding and abetting the murderers of Constable Jackie Haggan, who was shot in the head at a greyhound stadium in March 1994.

* Hill, Sean. Sixteen years for possession of a rifle with intent to endanger life. Also received 10 years for his part in a booby trap bomb which killed Detective Constable Spence McGarry.

* Hillen, Michael. Twenty-one years for conspiracy to murder members of the security forces and conspiracy to cause explosions in Newry, Co Down.

* Hughes, Sean. Twelve years for bombing a tyre depot in north Belfast in October 1993. Arrested after a chase during which he dropped a sawn-off shotgun.

* Hughes, Thomas. Ten years for possession of explosives.

* Hunter, Brian. Life for the murder of Sergeant Robert Guthrie, an RUC officer shot dead as he drove his car into a Belfast police station.

* Johnston, Paul. Fifteen years for conspiracy to murder members of the security forces, bombing a bank and possession of explosives. Drove the car for IRA men who planted a landmine which killed four UDR soldiers in April 1990.

* Kelly, Sean. Life for 1988 murder of Army corporals David Howe and Derek Wood, who drove into the path of a republican funeral.

* Leonard, Patrick. Twenty years for attempting to murder police and troops in Belfast in 1992.

* Lynch, Sean. Twenty-five years for conspiracy to murder. Captured after a gun battle in April 1986 in which Seamus McElwaine, a notorious IRA man, was killed. Lynch was badly wounded and his life saved by an Army doctor.

* Markey, Patrick. Life for murdering two men killed in attack on Newry courthouse in 1985.

* Marks, Jervis. Fifteen years for conspiracy to murder and explosives offences after being caught with Colm Coyle in a builder's yard in Newry, Co Down with a bomb.

* Marley, Emmanuel. Twenty years for the attempted murder of police officers in a Belfast RUC station in February 1989.

* Magee, Gerry. Twenty years for conspiracy to murder in 1988. Tried to blow up Army bus.

* Magee, Stephen. Twenty years.

* Mathers, Sean. Twenty years for conspiracy to murder members of the security forces and conspiracy to cause explosions. One of IRA leaders in Maze jail.

* McArdle, Mary. Life for the murder of Mary Travers who was shot in the back as she and her father, Thomas Travers, a magistrate, left a Catholic church in Belfast in April 1984. McArdle hid the murder weapon under her skirt.

* McCool, Roy. Twenty years for possession of six mortars, one of which exploded and blinded an Army bomb disposal officer. Arrested in October 1989 in Belfast.

* McCorley, Rosaleen. Twenty- two years for attempted murder.

* McEvoy, Paul. Sixteen years for attempted murder and conspiracy to murder after admitting 44 charges in a series of gun and bomb attacks in Belfast.

* McGahey, William. Life. Serving sentence for conspiracy to murder.

* McGennity, Paddy. Eighteen years for aiding and abetting the attempted murder of two RUC officers in a rocket attack outside Newry courthouse in December 1988.

* McGeough, John. Seventeen years for possession of a machine-gun, rifle and ammunition, and conspiracy to murder soldiers by shooting down a helicopter in May 1992.

* McGilloway, Patrick. Twenty- two years for the attempted murder of members of the security forces, possession of weapons and IRA membership. He and co-accused pleaded guilty to more than 120 offences. Convicted in November 1989.

* McGivern, Jim. Twenty years.

* McGoldrick, Francis. Fourteen years for the attempted murder of two police officers.

* McGuigan, Sean Patrick. Twelve years for causing GBH during a paramilitary beating.

* McGurk, Patsy. Life for murder of John Hardy, part-time UDR soldier.

* McKee, Eugene. Twenty years for conspiracy to cause an explosion.

* McKee, Michael. Twenty years for weapons possession.

* McKinley, Oliver. Twenty-four years for attempted murder.

* McKinley, Sean. Life for murder of Pte Ian O'Connor, of the Queen's Lancashire Regiment, in grenade attack.

* McLaughlin, Patrick. Twenty years for conspiracy to cause explosion.

* McNally, Henry Louis. Twenty-two years for conspiracy to murder catholics.

* McNamee, Danny. Twenty- five years for making the bomb that killed four Household Cavalry troopers in Hyde Park in 1982.

* McNulty, Sean. Twenty-five years for conspiracy to cause explosions.

* McShane, Kevin. Sixteen years for attempted murder of members of the security forces.

* Meehan, Pat. Twenty years for attempted murder, conspiracy to murder, and possession of firearms. Admitted bomb and gun attacks.

* Mervyn, George. Fourteen years for possession of a horizontal mortar with intent to endanger life. Also charged with the attempted murder of a policeman.

* Monaghan, Gary. Fifteen years for 80 terrorist charges including planting bombs.

* Moore, Anna (INLA). Life for murder after the bombing of the Droppin' Well Inn in Ballykelly, Co Londonderry, in December 1982 which killed 11 soldiers and six civilians. She was the first mass murderer to be freed under the Good Friday Agreement. * Moore, Declan. Twenty years for conspiracy to murder.

* Moore, Eamonn. Life for the 17 Droppin' Well murders. Later left INLA and joined the IRA.

* Mulligan, Paud. Sixteen years for attempted murder of a policewoman who lost an eye in a bomb blast. Admitted 27 offences.

* Murphy, Alex. Life for the murder of Corporals Robert Howes and Derek Woods who were abducted, beaten and shot after they drove into the funeral of an IRA man murdered by Michael Stone four days earlier.

* Murphy, Declan. Eighteen years.

* Murphy, Dominic. Ten years for possession of explosives.

* Murphy, Myles. Twenty-four years for attempted murder. Convicted 1992. Earlier conviction for offences connected to the murder of Corporals Howes and Woods in March 1988.

* Nelson, Martin. Eighteen years for conspiracy to murder members of the security forces as part of a total of 138 years in concurrent sentences for 12 charges.

* Nicell, Damien. Life for murder of Constable Clive Graham at a checkpoint in 1988.

* Nicholl, Dominic. Life for murder of John Hardy, part-time UDR soldier.

* O'Dowd, Paddy. Life for the murder of David Chamber, a part-time member of the UDR, in June 1985. O'Dowd shot his victim as he lay dying on the road and the judge recommended he serve at least 25 years for an "especially revolting" crime.

* O'Dwyer, Ella. Life for conspiracy to murder. Part of unit which blew up Grand Hotel in Brighton.

* O'Dwyer, Thomas. Twenty- two years for attempted murder. Found guilty on 33 counts and sentenced to a total of more than 500 years. Planned bombings of Belfast Airport and an RUC station.

* O'Hagan, John. Sixteen years for possession of explosives. Convicted 1992.

* O'Hagan, Sean. Twenty-four years for conspiracy to murder members of the security forces.

* O'Neill, Tony. Twenty years for conspiracy to murder.

* Peirce, John. Ten years.

* Quinn, Dermott. Twenty-five years for attempted murder of two RUC detectives.

* Rooney, Dan. Sixteen years for the attempted murder of RUC officers, two of whom were maimed in June 1992 when two coffee jar bombs thrown by Kevin Cosgrove exploded.

* Roulston, Michael. Eighteen years for 16 offences, including attempted murder and conspiracy to murder.

* Patrick Shotter. Life for the 17 Droppin' Well murders. With Anna Moore, he was part of INLA's bomb team. Boyfriend of Moore's daughter.

* Skillen, Mark. Fifteen years for possession of explosives.

* Smyth, Jimmy. Twenty years for attempted murder of off-duty prison officer and his wife.

* Tennyson, Francis. Seventeen years for conspiracy to murder and possession of two loaded assault rifles in December 1993. Captured with Patrick Hamill after driving through a checkpoint in Portadown, Co Armagh.

* Timmons, Michael. Life for murders of Corporals Howes and Woods in 1988.

* Walsh, Seanna. Twenty-two years for conspiracy to cause explosions. Convicted in 1990. Described by Sean O'Callaghan, the fomer IRA man, as "an exceptionally intelligent, thorough and dangerous operator".

* Weir, Albert. Fifteen years for possession of explosives and intent to cause an explosion after the attempted bombing of a Belfast RUC station in April 1990. Convicted March 1992 with Thomas O'Dwyer.

* Wright, Marie. Twenty years for attempting to murder members of the security forces by planting a Semtex bomb at a Belfast security gate in February 1991. Accomplice was Patrick Sheehan.

LOYALISTS

UDA

* Adams, Billy. Ten years for possession of two rifles. Captured when the taxi he was driving was rammed by police. Convicted 1995.

* Agnew, George. Six years for intimidation.

* Annesley, Daniel. Five years for demanding money with menaces from an RUC officer who posed as a company director. Convicted 1996.

* Bell, William. Life for the murder of Jack Kielty, a Catholic businessman, Gaelic football official and father of comedian Patrick Kielty, who was shot six times by hooded men in January 1988.

* Corry, Robert. Life for murder. While in prison, married Anna Moore, the INLA killer who received 17 life sentences for murdering soldiers. Marriage ended three years ago.

* Curlett, Les. Life for murder of Jack Kielty, the Catholic businessman and Gaelic football official, along with two others. Served 10 years. * Douglas, Jim. Life for murder.

* Hall, Gary. Fourteen years for the attempted murder of a Catholic taxi driver.

* Harbinson, Stephen. Life for the murder of Adam Lambert, a Protestant student whom he mistook for a Catholic. Sentenced to concurrent terms totalling 103 years for four murder plots.

* Jones, Edward. Life for the murder of Loughlin Maginn, a Catholic man shot dead at his home in Rathfriland, Co Down in August 1989. At the time he was a member of the UDR.

* Kenny, Robert. Life for the murder of Martin Love, a Catholic who was shot in the back of the head as he walked to his home in Enniskillen in April 1985. At the time, Kenny was a member of the Ulster Defence Regiment.

* Larmour, Darren. Life for murders of Edward Campbell, a Catholic taxi driver, and either James Meighan or Thomas Dixon, a fellow-UDA man, killed as part of a internal feud circa 1987.

* Massey, Mark. Fifteen years for a gun attack on two Catholic homes in Belfast.

* McClay, Peter. Life for murder of Kevin Mulhern, a Catholic, in 1976

* McCormick, Matthew. Fourteen years for conspiracy to murder unknown Catholic.

* McCullough, Jeffrey. Life for murder of Loughlin Maginn.

* Meneely, Patrick. Conspiracy and possession of weapons.

* Molyneaux, Robert. Life for murders of Edward Campbell, a Catholic taxi-driver, and another Loyalist killed in feud.

* Morrison, Joe. Life for murders of Edward Campbell, a Catholic taxi driver, and another Loyalist killed in feud.

* Trotter, Mark. Life for the murder of Martin Love, a Catholic who was shot as he walked to his home in Enniskillen.

* Watson, Delbert. Life for the murder of Jack Kielty, the Catholic businessman and Gaelic football official. Served 10 years.

UVF

* Austin, Samuel. Ten years for bomb-making. Convicted 1995. One of UVF prison leaders in Maze.

* Corry, Simon. Twelve years for possession of weapons with intent to endanger life. Served five-and-a-half years.

* Edwards, Geoffrey. Life for murder of Peter Corrigan, a Sinn Fein election worker, shot from a passing car as he walked along the street in Armagh city in September 1982. Member of UDR at time of killing.

* Gibson, John. Life for four sectarian murders. A former UVF commander in east Belfast he was sentenced to a total of 1,762 years in 1984. As well as the murders, 139 other offences were taken into account. Served 16 years.

* Gibson, Mark. Life for murder.

* Mair, James. Life for murder of William McLaughlin, a Catholic father-of-four.

* McLean, Denis. Life for three murders and six attempted murders.

* Millar, John Hugh. Life for murder of a Catholic building worker on Shankill building site, 1986.

OTHER LOYALIST

* Bellringer, Mark Seven years for the manslaughter of Norman Harley, a Catholic hairdresser who was bludgeoned with an iron bar, and grievous bodily harm. The judge said the motive was "to get money to feed the men's addiction to alcohol".

5 March 1999

Arms are the key to completing the Ulster jigsaw

Decommissioning of arms has cast a shadow over the political process for past five years

IN the Northern Ireland prime minister's office on the marbled ground floor corridor of Stormont's neo-classical Parliament Buildings, David Trimble is preparing for government.

Next week, London and Dublin will sign treaties establishing cross-border institutions between Northern Ireland and the Republic. Stormont is poised for "D Day" - Devolution Day - on Wednesday when powers are due to pass from Westminster to the Ulster assembly.

It is six months since Mo Mowlam, the Northern Ireland Secretary, vacated the office to make way for Mr Trimble. Now a joint holder of the Nobel Peace Prize, the new occupant is surrounded by an array of press officers, party aides and civil servants, as befits his new status.

But for all the trappings of power, Mr Trimble seems likely to remain Northern Ireland's First Minister "designate" and the leader of the main party in a "shadow" assembly for the time being.

The fitting into place of what Tony Blair described this week as the "last bit of the jigsaw", devolution itself, rests on a resolution of the issue which has cast a shadow over the political process for the past five years - the "decommissioning" of terrorist arms.

Mr Trimble's view on the matter appears unequivocal: weapons must be given up by the IRA before Sinn Fein can occupy its allotted two seats on the 10-member executive which will govern Northern Ireland.

The Provisional republican movement is equally adamant that the IRA will not decommission and insists that Mr Blair, supported by Bertie Ahern, the Irish premier, must "face down" Unionists and compel them to share power with Sinn Fein regardless of what the IRA may or may not do.

Brushing aside suggestions by officials that a "form of words" or the drawing up of a disarmament timetable would be an acceptable compromise, Mr Trimble sees the arms question as a moral rather than political one. The Government, he argues, has to back the demands of democrats or capitulate to terrorists.

The main thrust of Labour's Northern Ireland policy since Mr Blair entered Downing Street has been a determination to keep "the process" constantly moving forward, pushing any obstacles in the way to one side so they can be dealt with later.

Decommissioning was the main obstacle - republicans described it as a "roadblock" put in place by John Major - and the issue on which the first IRA ceasefire crumbled in February 1996. The arms question was fudged in the Good Friday Agreement but can be fudged no longer.

Miss Mowlam has the power to bring matters to a head on Wednesday by calling for the assembly to meet to form an executive. The UUP would then ask the nationalist SDLP to support a move to exclude Sinn Fein because no IRA weapons had been handed over.

The SDLP would almost certainly refuse to do this, prompting Mr Trimble to call for a "review" of the Good Friday Agreement and prompting a full-scale crisis with all the attendant dangers of terrorists moving to fill the political vacuum that had opened up.

Government sources have indicated, however, that Miss Mowlam is unlikely to call for the executive to be formed next week. Attention will then shift to Washington where Northern Ireland politicians will gather for the St Patrick's Day celebrations.

President Bill Clinton could then intervene to encourage movement. Failing that, Mr Blair will be keen to ensure the issue is resolved by April 10, the first anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement.

Despite the pressure on the republican movement which has been brought to bear by both London and Dublin in recent weeks, experience of the past five years indicates that this pressure will soon shift on to Mr Trimble.

After all, it is Mr Trimble who has given all the ground on the decommissioning issue thus far and his deputy, the SDLP's Seamus Mallon, is already arguing that the only way to ensure arms are given up is to allow Sinn Fein to join the executive beforehand. In the background, moreover, is the threat of a resumption of IRA violence.

Some members of the Royal Ulster Constabulary's Special Branch fear the Provisionals are already preparing to end their ceasefire if Sinn Fein is excluded from the new executive.

The IRA would risk a massive backlash if it did so, in terms not just of a security response but also public opinion, particularly in the Irish Republic. Support for armed republicanism south of the border is probably at its lowest level since the Troubles began.

There are also very real dangers in the Government attempting to force Mr Trimble to back down. A survey this week showed that only 41 per cent of Unionists supported the Good Friday Agreement, compared with 55 per cent who voted "Yes" last May.

Mr Trimble has little room for manoeuvre within his own party and any departure from his current stand on decommissioning could precipitate his fall and that of the assembly itself.

The greatest Unionist fear is that the assembly could topple, leaving the cross-border institutions, prisoner releases and Sinn Fein's access to Westminster, Dublin and Washington to continue.